At this time last season, the Chicago Blackhawks were in last place with a .300 points percentage. They would jostle with the Anaheim Ducks, Columbus Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks at the bottom of the standings over the final 50-plus games.
You know the rest of the story. The Blackhawks finished 30th and landed the first pick and Connor Bedard despite having an 11.5 percent chance of winning the draft lottery.
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Now a year later, the Blackhawks are heading in that same direction. They’re last in the NHL with a .317 points percentage through 30 games. And again, the Sharks (.339 percentage), Ducks (.367) and Blue Jackets (.391) appear to be their greatest competition for the best odds at the No. 1 pick.
The lottery balls will ultimately determine the draft order, but in all likelihood, the Blackhawks are going to be drafting somewhere in the top six. They could draft first again. If they remain in 32nd place, they would have an 18.5-percent chance at the No. 1 pick. If all three of those other teams finish below them, the Blackhawks would still draft no worse than sixth.
For the Blackhawks, this draft is stacked enough at the top that they’re going to be able to select another potential game-changing player at any spot in those six picks. They obviously would like to be higher than lower.
Like last season, the No. 1 pick is pretty definitive at this point. Bedard never relinquished the No. 1 spot throughout his draft year, and that will likely be the case for Macklin Celebrini, a 6-foot, 190-pound center.
Celebrini has a 99 percent chance to be a star as of now, according to Byron Bader’s NHL projection model. Bedard and Matvei Michkov had the same percentage heading into last year’s draft. Celebrini has 10 goals and 15 assists through 15 games as a freshman at Boston University this season.
I happened to recently talk to Boston University coach Jay Pandolfo about Blackhawks prospect Ryan Greene, a sophomore at BU, and asked about Celebrini, too.
“It’s just his overall game,” Pandolfo said of Celebrini. “The maturity in his game for a 17-year-old, it’s really impressive. The kid at that age that has that kind of offensive capabilities, for him to care just as much about the other side of the game, the defensive side … He doesn’t take any shifts off. He plays 200 feet all the time. He works back on defense just as hard as he goes on offense.
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“So, he’s been excellent. He’s just driven. He has passion for the game. He wants to get better every day. There’s just not a lot to (not) like, let’s put it this way. Like his preparation, his preparation is second to none. He makes sure he’s prepared for everything he does and it just translates for him. That’s why I think he’s so good, because he puts the work in. So, when it comes time to play, he’s ready because he’s put all the work in. It’s really impressive.”
If the Blackhawks were to become the first team since the Edmonton Oilers to win two consecutive lotteries, they would undoubtedly draft Celebrini. He and Bedard would make an incredible 1-2 punch down the middle. The Blackhawks would have their top two centers and then would just need to figure out what wingers to put around them.
Macklin ties it up from his office!
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— BU Men's Hockey (@TerrierHockey) November 18, 2023
Now if the Blackhawks don’t land the first pick, then it’s going to come down to their scouting to determine who to take. Like last year, Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson has already been hitting the road to watch most of the top prospects in person. That’s expected to be the case as the season continues too, especially if he’s not needed around the NHL team every day. Norm Maciver and Brian Campbell have been spotted scouting draft-eligible players as well. Blackhawks director of amateur scouting Mike Doneghey and his staff are out and about, too. The Blackhawks will hold a round of scouting meetings after the upcoming World Junior Championship.
There doesn’t appear to be a consensus No. 2 pick yet. Even in The Athletic’s rankings, Corey Pronman went with defenseman Anton Silayev at No. 2 and Scott Wheeler had Cole Eiserman. From what I’ve heard, the Blackhawks are open to drafting a forward or defenseman with their first selection. They feel like they’re building enough depth at both positions to where they don’t have an overwhelming need at one spot. They also know they need more elite players all over the ice.
One factor for the Blackhawks’ mentality could be the projected lack of elite center depth in this draft. Last year’s draft was loaded with top centers. Bedard, Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli and Will Smith, all centers, were the first four players selected. After Celebrini this year, another center might not go in the top-five picks. Pronman ranked Berkly Catton (WHL) as his next center at No. 7 and had Cayden Lindstrom (WHL) and Konsta Helenius (Finland) in the top 11. Wheeler ranked Helenius fifth and Catton eighth.
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The Blackhawks aren’t completely against drafting wingers, but center is a priority for them in building a team. Their goal is to have three high-end centers when they’re ready for the next phase. Bedard is one. They’re currently evaluating whether Lukas Reichel, Frank Nazar, Oliver Moore, Greene, Martin Misiak and Paul Ludwinski could be the others. If they don’t fit the bill at center, the Blackhawks believe they can be shifted to wing. They also have plenty of prospects like Colton Dach, Gavin Hayes, Nick Lardis and Roman Kantserov who they believe have a shot as top-nine wingers.
The projected top wingers in the 2024 draft are Cole Eiserman and Ivan Demidov. Pronman ranked Eiserman second overall in the draft and Wheeler has him third. Demidov is fifth in Pronman’s ranking and fourth in Wheeler’s.
Eiserman, who is 5-11 and 197 pounds, is considered one of the best pure goal scorers to come through the U.S. National Team Development Program. He has 27 goals and 112 shots on net in 23 games this season. He isn’t considered a playmaker and may not elevate Bedard’s game, but Bedard could certainly make Eiserman more dangerous. A line with Bedard and Eiserman would probably benefit from a playmaking winger. Either way, Bedard and Eiserman would make the Blackhawks’ power play a threat.
Doesn't matter how you spell it, so long as you get there… it's elite. pic.twitter.com/L4fRCpF49P
— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) December 12, 2023
Demidov, who is 5-11 and 168 pounds, is more of a playmaking winger. He had 19 goals and 43 assists in 41 games for SKA in the MHL last season. He has quick hands and a high motor. He hasn’t consistently cracked SKA’s KHL lineup yet. He recently returned to play after missing time with a knee injury. The question is how quickly he’d come over to North America. His current KHL contract expires in April of 2025, so there is a possible window in the next few years.
As for the centers, Pronman recently said on our podcast that he thought Catton and Lindstrom had potential to be top-six centers, but they weren’t sure things. Pronman also noted the Blackhawks have a lot of forwards considered to be on the smaller side, especially at center, and Eiserman and Demidov wouldn’t change that.
“Maybe a guy like a Cayden Lindstrom is appealing,” Pronman said. “A guy who is a 6-3, 6-4 center, maybe a wing. He skates very, very well. One of the best skaters in the draft, (a) whopping 6-3, 6-4, and can score, I think that could be a very interesting forward piece for them to discuss. … I think he’s going to go in the top 10 if the draft happened today. It wouldn’t shock me if he went closer to 4-7, to be quite honest. I think there’s a lot of interest in this player.”
The Blackhawks do like how their defense is shaping up, but it’s not a position where they feel it’s complete. Considering how many defensemen are projected to go in the first 20 picks in 2024, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Blackhawks did draft one with a first-round pick. The Blackhawks’ second first-round selection is from the Brandon Hagel trade to Tampa Bay, and it would obviously be in the Blackhawks’ interest if the Lightning continue to be a non-playoff team for the rest of the season.
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The Blackhawks haven’t stated it, but the assumption is they’d prefer a right-handed defenseman over a left-handed one. Their pipeline is full of left-handed ones with Kevin Korchinski, Alex Vlasic, Wyatt Kaiser, Isaak Phillips, Nolan Allan and Ethan Del Mastro.
Artyom Levshunov is considered the top right-handed defenseman in the upcoming draft. Wheeler has him ranked third overall and Pronman has him fourth. Levshunov is 6-2 and 208 pounds. He’s thought of more as an offensive defenseman, but his defensive play is improving. He’s currently a freshman at Michigan State. Wheeler recently wrote an in-depth story on him.
GO DEEPER
Inside Artyom Levshunov's journey from Belarus to the top of the 2024 NHL Draft
Pronman and Wheeler also like right-handed defensemen Zayne Parekh (OHL) and Carter Yakemchuk (WHL) in the 6-12 range. Henry Mews (OHL) and Adam Jiricek (Czechia) are two more right-handed defensemen projected later in the top 20. The Blackhawks might be able to wait on one with their second pick.
As for left-handed defenseman shots, Pronman is especially high on Silayev. Pronman described him as an Owen Power-caliber defenseman. Sam Dickinson (OHL) is ranked in the 7-9 range by both experts. Zeev Buium (NCAA) ranks high in Bader’s model. Overall, Bader mentioned Celebrini, Eiserman, Buium, Parekh, Levshunov and Demidov as players who look promising within his model.
Some of these projections will likely change over the next six-plus months before the draft. The upcoming World Junior Championship often influences it. How players do in the second half of the season and in the playoffs is often factored in as well. The lottery will come in the spring, too.
In other words, a lot will happen before the Blackhawks announce their first selection in Las Vegas in June. But it does appear more and more likely the Blackhawks will have another high pick to add to the mix and help move along their rebuild.
(Photo of Macklin Celebrini: Michael Miller / ISI Photos / Getty Images)
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